Uber Q4 Earnings on Deck: Buy, Sell or Hold It Ahead of Results?

Core Insights - Uber Technologies (UBER) is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 4, with earnings estimated at 83 cents per share and revenues at $14.28 billion [1] - The earnings estimate has increased by 1 cent over the past 60 days, while revenue is projected to grow by 19.4% year-over-year [2] Earnings and Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q4 2025 revenues is $14.28 billion, reflecting a 19.4% increase from the previous year [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 is expected to decline by 74.1% compared to the same quarter last year [2] - For the full year 2025, revenues are estimated at $51.9 billion, indicating an 18% year-over-year growth, while EPS is projected to be $5.4, representing an 18.4% increase [3] Gross Bookings and EBITDA - Gross bookings for Q4 2025 are anticipated to be between $52.25 billion and $53.75 billion, suggesting a year-over-year growth of 17% to 21% [6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for gross bookings is $53.1 billion, which is a 20.1% increase from Q4 2024 [7] - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to range from $2.41 billion to $2.51 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 31% to 36% [8] Market Performance and Competition - Uber's shares have declined over 15% in the last three months, underperforming both the Zacks Internet-Services industry and competitor Lyft [10] - Concerns regarding competition from Alphabet's Waymo in the robotaxi and autonomous driving sectors have negatively impacted Uber's stock performance [13] Valuation Metrics - Uber is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 22.15, which is lower than the industry average of 29.5 [14] - Lyft's shares are trading at an even lower forward P/E of 11.37, indicating a more attractive valuation compared to Uber [14] Strategic Focus and Future Outlook - Uber's diversification efforts and shareholder-friendly approach are noted as strengths, with a market capitalization of $201.08 billion [17] - The company is focusing on autonomous vehicles for growth and is expected to provide updates on this during the Q4 conference call [9] - Investors are particularly interested in guidance regarding tariffs and the implications of a recent Dutch court ruling on driver classification [9]