Amgen Set to Report Q4 Earnings: What Investors Should Know

Core Insights - Amgen (AMGN) is set to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 3, with earnings expected to be $4.74 per share and sales at $9.46 billion, reflecting a 12.8% earnings surprise in the last reported quarter [1][10]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Product sales are anticipated to be driven by strong volume growth from drugs like Evenity, Repatha, and Blincyto, although prices are expected to decline due to increased rebates [2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Evenity, Repatha, and Blincyto is $559 million, $798 million, and $434 million, respectively [3]. - Newer drugs such as Imdelltra, Tavneos, and Tezspire are expected to contribute to top-line growth, alongside sales from rare disease drugs like Uplizna, estimated at $183 million [4]. Group 2: Patent Expirations and Competitive Pressures - Patents for key drugs Prolia and Xgeva expired in February 2025 in the U.S., leading to expected sales erosion due to the launch of biosimilars, with estimates of $980 million for Prolia and $444 million for Xgeva [5]. - Competitive pressures have negatively impacted volume growth for Kyprolis, with an estimated sales figure of $365 million, while Enbrel sales are likely to decline due to price reductions [6]. Group 3: Biosimilars and R&D Costs - Amgen's biosimilars, including Wezlana and Pavblu, are expected to contribute to sales growth, although Wezlana is not expected to generate U.S. sales in the fourth quarter [7]. - Lower revenues from oncology biosimilars and legacy products are anticipated, alongside higher R&D costs that may negatively impact operating margins [8][9]. Group 4: Earnings Expectations - Amgen's Earnings ESP is -0.40%, indicating a lower likelihood of an earnings beat, with the most accurate estimate at $4.72 per share compared to the consensus of $4.74 [13][14].