Is Western Production a Core Earnings and Growth Pillar for ALTO?

Core Insights - The Western production segment is a crucial component of Alto Ingredients' growth strategy, focusing on renewable fuels and essential ingredients, with plans to introduce liquid CO2 in 2025 [2][9] Group 1: Western Production Segment - The segment benefits from premium ethanol pricing due to regional supply constraints and proximity to key markets, allowing for more resilient growth compared to Midwest-focused peers [3] - In 2024, the Western production segment generated $115 million from alcohol sales and $37 million from essential ingredients, selling approximately 61 million gallons of alcohol and 514,600 tons of essential ingredients [3] - The segment's alignment with California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) enhances demand for low-carbon ethanol, leading to more predictable EBITDA and reduced exposure to supply chain volatility [4][9] Group 2: Strategic Positioning - The Western production segment supports Alto's transition to higher-value, lower-carbon products, translating regulatory advantages into sustainable pricing power and margin expansion [5][9] - Compared to peers like Green Plains Inc. and Gevo, which face challenges from fluctuating ethanol prices and early-stage project limitations, Alto's Western segment offers more stability and growth potential [6][7] Group 3: Financial Performance - Alto Ingredients' stock has increased by 62.6% over the past year, outperforming the industry average [8] - The stock is currently undervalued, trading at a price-to-earnings multiple of 16.38, lower than the industry average of 16.84 [11] - Consensus estimates for 2026 earnings show no movement in the last 30 days, indicating stability in projections [12]