AmEx Set to Report Q4 Earnings: Key Metrics Investors Should Track

Core Insights - American Express Company (AXP) is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 30, 2026, with earnings estimated at $3.55 per share and revenues at $18.82 billion [1][6] Earnings Estimates - The fourth-quarter earnings estimate has seen one upward revision and two downward movements in the past month, indicating a year-over-year increase of 16.8% [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year growth of 9.6% [2] - For the full year 2025, the revenue estimate is $72.06 billion, reflecting a 9.3% year-over-year rise, while the EPS estimate is $15.40, indicating a 15.4% growth [4] Performance History - American Express has exceeded consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 4% [4] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for American Express, as it has an Earnings ESP of -0.97% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [5] Factors Influencing Q4 Results - A rise in network volumes is expected, attributed to resilient consumer spending among AXP's premium customer base, with an anticipated growth of 8.3% in network volumes [6][7] - Discount revenues are projected to grow by 7.1% year-over-year, benefiting from increased network volumes [8] - Billed businesses in U.S. Consumer Services and Commercial Services are expected to grow by 7.4% and 3% year-over-year, respectively [8] - Cards-in-force are likely to increase by 4.7% year-over-year, with Average Card Member loans expected to rise by 8% [9] - Net interest income is projected to increase by 11.7% year-over-year due to higher loan receivables [10] Cost Considerations - Client engagement costs are anticipated to rise due to increased Card Member spending and higher usage of travel and lifestyle benefits [11] - Pre-tax income from Commercial Services is expected to decline by 6.9% year-over-year [11]