Can Venezuela get back to producing three million barrels of crude oil a day?

Core View - Venezuela's crude oil production faces significant challenges in returning to previous levels, with current output at 0.8 million barrels per day compared to a peak of 3.5 million barrels per day in the 1990s [2][3]. Oil Production and Historical Context - Venezuela's oil production has declined sharply since the nationalization of U.S. oil assets in 2007, further exacerbated by the global oil crash from 2014 to 2016 and the pandemic-triggered decline in 2020 [3]. - Recent production levels have fluctuated, with a low of 0.5 million barrels per day due to increased U.S. sanctions [5]. Potential for Recovery - Venezuela possesses substantial oil reserves, estimated at 241 billion to 300 billion barrels, positioning it as a potential oil superpower [4]. - Analysts suggest that with political stability and investment, production could rise to 1.2 million barrels per day within months and potentially reach 2.5 million barrels per day over the next decade [7][10]. Investment Requirements - Significant investment is necessary for production recovery, with estimates ranging from $15 billion to $20 billion over the next decade to achieve 1.5 million barrels per day [9]. - To restore production to over 3 million barrels per day, an estimated $180 billion in investment would be required over the next 15 years [10]. Market Outlook - Current expectations indicate little change in oil export levels in the near term, but a shift in control allowing U.S. majors back could lead to increased production in 3-5 years [6]. - Analysts from BMO Capital Markets and Morgan Stanley highlight that the risks to production are "clearly to the upside," contingent on government stability and investment [5][10].