美国债市：国债保持稳定 收益率曲线略微走平

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market showed little reaction to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference, as he did not provide key information regarding policy direction beyond 2026 [1][3] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, indicating stable economic growth and stable inflation expectations [1][3] - The Fed upgraded its description of economic growth from "moderate" to "solid" and noted signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate, suggesting a hawkish tone for future policy direction [1][3] Market Reactions - Treasury yields remained within a 1 basis point range of Tuesday's closing levels, with the 10-year Treasury yield holding steady at approximately 4.24% [1][3] - Market prices showed little movement before and after the Fed's decision and Powell's press conference [1][3] Interest Rate Expectations - The market reflects an expectation of a cumulative rate cut of 45 basis points by the end of the year, equivalent to just under two 25 basis point cuts, with the first anticipated cut occurring at the July policy meeting [1][3] Currency and Treasury Support - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bansen stated that the U.S. is "absolutely not" intervening in the market to support the yen, reinforcing a strong dollar policy, which provides support for long-term Treasuries and the dollar [1][3] Treasury Yield Data - As of 3:21 PM NY time, the following Treasury yields were reported: - 2-year Treasury yield: 3.5834% - 5-year Treasury yield: 3.8401% - 10-year Treasury yield: 4.2492% - 30-year Treasury yield: 4.8581% [2][4][5] - The yield spread between the 5-year and 30-year Treasuries was 101.62 basis points, while the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasuries was 66.38 basis points [5]