Southwest Airlines forecasts surge in 2026 profits after new seat, bag fees take hold

Core Insights - Southwest Airlines forecasts a significant increase in 2026 profits, surpassing analysts' expectations due to a revamped business model that includes new revenue streams such as bag and seat assignments [1][4]. Financial Performance - The airline anticipates adjusted earnings of at least $4 per share for the year, exceeding the $3.19 expected by analysts, with a capacity growth of 2% to 3% compared to 2025 [2]. - For the first quarter, Southwest expects revenue per seat mile to increase by 9.5%, higher than the 8.5% forecasted by analysts, and projects adjusted earnings of 45 cents, above the 33 cents anticipated by Wall Street [2]. Business Model Changes - Over the past two years, Southwest has made significant changes to its business model, including the end of its open boarding policy and the introduction of assigned seating, which includes additional charges for certain seat selections [3]. - The airline also began charging customers for checked bags for the first time, aligning its practices more closely with industry competitors amid pressure to enhance profitability [4]. Recent Earnings Report - In the fourth quarter, Southwest reported adjusted earnings per share of 58 cents, matching expectations, while revenue was $7.44 billion, slightly below the $7.51 billion expected [6].