不锈钢：盘面窄幅震荡为主 基本面成本和供需博弈

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing a mixed trend with cautious downstream purchasing and price stabilization ahead of the holiday season [3] Pricing - As of January 28, the price of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Foshan, the price is 14,300 yuan/ton, down by 50 yuan/ton [1] - The basis price is 205 yuan/ton, which has increased by 75 yuan/ton day-on-day [1] Raw Materials - Nickel ore prices have surged to 28-32 USD/wet ton due to limited shipments from Indonesian mines and slow approval processes for new quotas [1][3] - The market for high-nickel pig iron is quiet, with suppliers quoting prices around 1,080-1,100 yuan/nickel (tax included) [1] - The retail price of ferrochrome remains firm due to limited spot resources and a slowdown in supply growth [1] Supply - In December, the crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills was 3.2605 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 232,600 tons (6.7%) and a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% [1] - January's expected crude steel output is 3.4065 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.48% and a year-on-year increase of 19.05% [1] - Steel mills are increasing production cuts ahead of the holiday, with multiple announcements of production halts [1] Inventory - Social inventory has slightly accumulated, with 300 series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan at 453,900 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,200 tons [2] - As of January 28, the stainless steel futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 39,654 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1,398 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a general lack of trading activity as downstream purchasing remains cautious [3] - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by domestic policies aimed at guiding high-quality industry transformation [3] - Overall, while cost support is strengthening, weak demand and ample supply are limiting upward price movement, with expectations of short-term fluctuations [3]