光大期货：1月29日能源化工日报

Oil Market - Oil prices continued to rise, with WTI March contract closing at $63.21 per barrel, up $0.82 (1.31%) and Brent March contract closing at $68.40 per barrel, up $0.83 (1.23%) [2][17] - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 2.3 million barrels, significantly higher than industry forecasts, while gasoline inventories reached their highest level since 2020 [2][17] - The geopolitical risk surrounding Iran's oil supply has pushed prices higher, with a month-to-date increase of over 10% despite predictions of oversupply [2][17] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil (FU2603) rose by 2.23% to 2751 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil (LU2604) increased by 2.31% to 3232 yuan/ton [18] - China's independent refineries' operating rate was 68.04%, up 0.27 percentage points from the previous week, supported by recovering downstream demand [18] - An expected rebound in low-sulfur fuel oil shipments to Singapore may create inventory pressure in the coming month [18] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract (BU2603) increased by 3.96% to 3410 yuan/ton, with social inventory rate at 24.61%, up 0.12% from last week [18] - Domestic refinery asphalt inventory decreased by 0.66%, while the operating rate fell by 1.35% to 32.27% [18] - Demand remains weak due to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions, with market expectations of potential supply shortages diminishing [18] Rubber - The main rubber contract (RU2605) rose by 155 yuan/ton to 16360 yuan/ton, with NR and BR contracts also showing increases [19] - Increased imports and port inventory accumulation are expected to limit price volatility, while tight supply of butadiene may support BR prices [19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5370 yuan/ton, up 2.13%, while EG2605 closed at 3970 yuan/ton, up 0.81% [20] - PX futures closed at 7392 yuan/ton, up 1.45%, with a current spot price of $924/ton [20] - The polyester market remains weak, with production and sales in Jiangsu and Zhejiang estimated at only 20-30% [20] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2290 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $265 to $269/ton [21] - Domestic supply remains stable, while demand from MTO plants has weakened due to operational reductions [22] - Overall, methanol is expected to maintain a bottom range due to inventory pressures [22] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices are experiencing pressure with production margins negative for oil-based PP and low for coal-based PP [23] - HDPE and LDPE prices are at 7580 yuan/ton and 8924 yuan/ton respectively, with production levels remaining high due to increased recovery rates [23] - Demand is expected to weaken as factories prepare for the upcoming holiday, leading to potential inventory accumulation [23] PVC - PVC prices remained stable, with the electric stone method ranging from 4680 to 4770 yuan/ton [24] - Supply remains high while domestic demand is slowing, leading to a bearish outlook for the market [24] - The upcoming removal of export tax rebates may exert upward pressure on prices in the long term [24] Urea - Urea futures closed at 1799 yuan/ton, with stable prices in the spot market [25] - Daily production reached a high of 211,100 tons, with supply expected to increase further [25] - Demand remains positive, but market sentiment may shift as the holiday approaches [25] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures closed at 1198 yuan/ton, with stable prices in the spot market [26] - Supply levels are expected to increase, but demand remains weak with limited support for prices [26] - The market is anticipated to experience wide fluctuations as inventory accumulation is expected before the holiday [27] Glass - Glass futures closed at 1067 yuan/ton, with spot prices remaining strong at 1103 yuan/ton [28] - Demand is supported by pre-holiday rush, but may weaken as the holiday approaches [28] - Overall, the market is expected to face pressure from inventory accumulation and seasonal demand decline [28]