“蛋”说无妨：蛋价回暖扰动去产能节奏，蛋鸡行业格局再添变数

Core Insights - The egg chicken industry faced significant losses in 2025, leading to accelerated capacity reduction driven by a "high elimination + low replenishment" pattern [2][12] - In January 2026, egg prices unexpectedly surged, disrupting the capacity reduction rhythm as the breeding sector turned profitable, leading to a delay in elimination and a warming of replenishment [2][5] - The industry is expected to transition towards a "tight balance" structure, but the speed of this transition remains uncertain and requires monitoring of key indicators [2][19] 2025 Industry Losses and Capacity Reduction - The egg chicken breeding sector entered a loss phase in 2025 due to an imbalance between supply and demand caused by prior capacity expansion [12][13] - By September 2025, the number of laying hens reached 1.368 billion, the highest in five years, while average egg prices fell to 3.17 yuan per jin, a decline of over 20% year-on-year [12][13] - The average loss per jin of eggs was 0.03 yuan, with the maximum loss reaching 0.72 yuan, resulting in two-thirds of the year being in a loss state [12][13] Capacity Reduction Initiatives - In response to losses, the industry began self-initiated capacity reduction, with the total number of old hens slaughtered increasing to 933 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.45% [13] - The age of slaughter for old hens decreased from approximately 550 days to around 480 days, while monthly replenishment dropped significantly from 94 million in April to 78 million in September, a cumulative decline of over 15% [13] January 2026 Price Surge - In January 2026, egg prices rebounded sharply, with prices in major production areas rising from 2.99 yuan per jin on January 1 to 3.92 yuan per jin by January 26, an increase of nearly 1 yuan per jin [5][15] - This price increase was driven by reduced supply and heightened demand due to the upcoming Spring Festival, with the number of laying hens decreasing to 1.344 billion by December 2025, a 1.75% decline from the peak [5][15] - The profitability of the breeding sector improved, with average daily profits per chicken reaching nearly 1 yuan, prompting changes in elimination and replenishment behaviors [5][15] Uncertainty in Capacity Reduction Speed - The theoretical number of laying hens is expected to decline to 1.301 billion by April 2026, indicating a steady capacity reduction trend [17] - However, the pace of this reduction may be affected by the reluctance to eliminate hens, as January's profitability has led to a decrease in slaughter rates [17] - The high replenishment levels from August 2024 to May 2025 will result in significant elimination pressure in 2026, but the strong price recovery in January introduces uncertainty regarding the speed of capacity reduction [17][19] Long-term Industry Outlook - A decline in the number of laying hens from January to April 2026 is highly probable, but the speed of this decline will closely relate to the progress of hen slaughtering [19] - Future changes in inventory will be influenced by post-holiday replenishment, hen elimination, and molting factors, with the industry expected to maintain a long-term trajectory towards a "tight balance" [19]