聚丙烯：完全竞争叠加低估值 盈利韧性决定价格底线

Core Viewpoint - The current PP market has entered a stage of complete competition and undervaluation, with costs becoming the core anchor for market pricing. The cost support for PP has weakened due to declining raw material prices, with coal-based PP emerging as the key determinant of the price floor for PP [3][10]. Cost Structure and Profitability - The three main production pathways for PP—oil-based, coal-based, and PDH—exhibit distinct cost structures. Oil-based PP is highly dependent on international oil prices, leading to a loss of cost competitiveness when oil prices remain high. The average cost of oil-based PP is projected to be 7380.53 yuan/ton in 2025, down 11.82% year-on-year [4][12]. - PDH-based PP also faces high costs due to its reliance on imported propane, making it vulnerable to geopolitical, tariff, and logistics issues. Its average cost is expected to be 7945.51 yuan/ton in 2025, a decrease of 2.44% year-on-year [4][12]. - In contrast, coal-based PP benefits from low domestic coal prices and stable supply, maintaining a cost advantage with an expected average cost of 6346.04 yuan/ton in 2025, down 13.22% year-on-year [4][12]. Profit Margins and Operational Levels - Despite the decline in costs across different pathways, coal-based PP remains the lowest-cost option. Its average gross profit is projected to be 336.89 yuan/ton in 2025, while oil-based and PDH-based PP are expected to have negative gross profits of -354.93 yuan/ton and -899.15 yuan/ton, respectively [6][14]. - Coal-based PP producers are expected to maintain high operational levels around 90%, while PDH-based producers may face operational challenges with levels around 70%-80% due to significant losses [6][14]. Price Dynamics and Market Competition - In a fully competitive market, PP prices are expected to fluctuate around the marginal cost of coal-based production, with 6000 yuan/ton serving as an invisible price floor. If prices fall below this level, higher-cost oil-based and PDH capacities will be forced to exit the market [8][16]. - The supply structure indicates that coal-based PP currently accounts for 19.16% of total capacity, with potential for further expansion. Future competition in the PP market will center around the "coal-based cost line," necessitating close monitoring of leading coal-based PP producers with resource advantages and scale effects, while being cautious of the long-term loss risks faced by PDH producers [8][16].