Core Viewpoint - The domestic soybean oil market in China is expected to see a price increase of over 3% year-on-year in 2025, driven by international soybean oil prices and related products. In 2026, the market is anticipated to maintain its strong performance due to uncertainties in international situations, increased supply and demand, cost support, and a bullish outlook for international oils [2][10]. Group 1: Price Trends and Influences - The domestic soybean oil market is heavily influenced by international soybean prices, particularly the CBOT soybean prices, which directly affect the cost of imported soybeans and subsequently the soybean oil market [2][10]. - The correlation coefficient between CBOT soybean oil prices and China's first-grade soybean oil prices is 0.80, indicating a strong positive correlation over the past five years [2][10]. - By the end of 2025, the average price of CBOT soybean oil is projected to be 49.27 cents per pound, an increase of 11.39% compared to the average price in 2024. The average price of domestic first-grade soybean oil is expected to be 8314 yuan per ton, up 3.23% from 2024 [11]. Group 2: Regional Price Disparities - The price of soybean oil in China shows a pattern of being higher in the south and lower in the north, influenced by regional supply and demand dynamics. For instance, soybean oil prices in the South China and Shandong regions have generally followed similar trends, with South China prices often exceeding those in Shandong by 100 to 400 yuan per ton [3][13]. - In 2025, the price gap between South China and Shandong is expected to narrow due to high palm oil prices leading to a significant inversion of the soybean-palm oil price difference, which has stimulated soybean oil consumption in South China [4][14]. Group 3: Future Outlook - For the 2025/2026 period, a slight decrease in global soybean production is expected, which will reduce the downward pressure on international soybean prices. The demand for soybeans is anticipated to grow due to deepening international trade cooperation and expanding biofuel needs, tightening the supply-demand balance [5][16]. - Domestic soybean crushing capacity is expected to continue expanding, with high levels of imported soybeans providing a solid raw material foundation for soybean oil production. However, actual production growth may be limited due to constraints on operating rates [17]. - The average price of first-grade soybean oil in China is projected to reach 8513 yuan per ton in 2026, reflecting an increase of 199 yuan per ton, or 2.39%, compared to the average price in 2025 [8][17].
豆油：2025年现货明显上涨 预计2026年延续涨势
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-29 02:45