长江有色：算力金属撑盘锡价震荡不冲高 29日锡价或小涨

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing price fluctuations driven by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical risks, with short-term support from external market strength and concerns over supply constraints from key tin-producing regions [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Overnight, London tin prices rose by 3.52%, closing at $56,795, an increase of $1,930, with a trading volume of 652 contracts and an open interest of 25,050 contracts, which increased by 232 [1]. - In contrast, domestic Shanghai tin futures showed weakness, with the main contract closing at 442,800 yuan/ton, down 2,070 yuan, a decline of 0.47% [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The tin market is characterized by a dual narrative of tightening supply and differentiated demand, with geopolitical tensions in the Democratic Republic of Congo impacting supply and raising price risk premiums [2]. - Short-term demand is subdued due to the traditional off-season before the Spring Festival and high prices, while long-term demand is driven by AI infrastructure, electric vehicles, and photovoltaics [2]. - The global tin resource extraction ratio has dropped to a historical low, indicating long-term resource scarcity, which is expected to support prices [2]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The industry faces significant challenges, including geopolitical instability, policy tightening, and resource depletion, which collectively constrain production [2]. - The profit distribution within the industry is uneven, with upstream mining benefiting from resource premiums, while midstream smelting and downstream processing sectors struggle with high costs [2]. - The overall tin price is expected to fluctuate within a range today, with caution advised regarding potential pullback risks [2].