长江有色：美联储决议落地市场偏暖避险与看涨交织 29日镍价或小涨

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a complex interplay of supply constraints and demand dynamics, influenced by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions, leading to a volatile price environment. Supply Side - Global nickel supply is characterized by a stark contrast between international expectations of tightness and domestic realities of abundance, with Indonesia's significant reduction in nickel mining quotas being a key driver of supply contraction [3] - The Indonesian nickel mining quota has decreased by 34%, exacerbating global supply concerns, while short-term factors such as the rainy season in the Philippines and geopolitical disturbances in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) further tighten supply expectations [3] - In contrast, domestic supply remains stable with steady release of smelting capacity and high social inventory levels, leading to a relaxed supply environment [3] Demand Side - Demand for nickel is structurally driven, with stainless steel maintaining stable demand while the electric vehicle battery sector, particularly high-nickel ternary materials, emerges as a strong growth engine [3] - However, high nickel prices are dampening immediate purchasing enthusiasm among downstream enterprises, which are primarily focused on essential stockpiling [3] Industry Dynamics - The industry is increasingly characterized by a dual-core structure where Indonesia dominates resource supply and China leads in smelting and application, resulting in profit concentration at the upstream resource level while midstream smelting companies face rising cost pressures [4] - The futures market reflects concerns over long-term supply through a backwardation structure, although short-term pressures from high inventory levels in exchanges and the spot market persist [4] Price Trend Forecast - The nickel market is undergoing a fundamental restructuring, with short-term price movements expected to remain volatile due to high inventory levels and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream sectors [5] - Core support for medium-term prices remains robust, driven by significant policy support from reduced Indonesian mining quotas, heightened resource supply concerns due to geopolitical risks in the DRC, and ongoing global liquidity easing [5] Future Outlook - Future nickel price movements will largely depend on three key variables: the actual implementation of Indonesian policies, developments in the DRC situation, and the intensity of post-holiday restocking demand from downstream sectors [6] - The nickel market is expected to experience intense short-term volatility, but medium to long-term prospects remain positive due to constrained supply and structurally strong demand [6]