东海证券：寿险负债转型推进叠加投资端改善 关注板块低估值配置机遇

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is experiencing a transformation in life insurance liabilities, with a gradual reduction in team size and significant improvements in productivity. The focus should remain on capacity growth under stable scale and the release of demand following increased awareness of protection needs. The investment side is optimistic due to the "National Nine Articles" indicating a new starting point for the capital market, with long-term interest rates at historically low levels, and a reduction in the preset interest rate expected to alleviate interest spread loss risks. The sector is currently undervalued, presenting opportunities for allocation, particularly in large listed insurance companies with a clear competitive edge [1]. Group 1 - The insurance industry association held a meeting to discuss the economic situation and interest rate trends, determining that the preset interest rate for ordinary life insurance products is 1.90%, a decrease of 1 basis point from the previous quarter [1]. - The preset interest rate research value has decreased to 1.89%, with limited downward adjustment expected for the year. The quarterly adjustments from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025 show a consistent decline, with the most recent drop being 1 basis point [2]. - The reference indicators for the preset interest rate, including the 5Y-LPR and 5Y fixed deposit rates, remain stable, while the 10Y government bond yield has decreased slightly, aligning with the trend of the preset interest rate [2]. Group 2 - The "New Year Sales" for 2026 are strong, driven by the migration of deposits and improved competitiveness of dividend insurance products. The proportion of dividend insurance in new business remains high, providing a dual benefit of reducing interest spread loss risks for insurers while offering clients a channel to share in capital market dividends [3]. - The bancassurance channel is a key growth driver, with significant new premium growth reported by leading insurers during the New Year sales period, indicating a doubling of premium income for some top insurers [3]. - The long-term interest rates are stabilizing around 1.8%, which is expected to support the net investment yield recovery for insurers. The capital market's increasing transaction volume is leading insurers to enhance their equity allocations, particularly in technology sectors like AI and high-end manufacturing [4].