“新债王”冈拉克：鲍威尔主席任内美联储将不会再降息

Group 1 - The CEO of DoubleLine Capital, Jeffrey Gundlach, predicts that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged for the remainder of Powell's term, emphasizing that inflation is not as concerning as previously thought and unemployment rates are stabilizing [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's current federal funds rate is held steady at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, with economic activity expanding at a robust pace and signs of stabilization in the labor market [1] - The probability of a rate cut at the upcoming April meeting is approximately 26%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is as high as 74% [3] Group 2 - Gundlach agrees with Powell's view that the conflict between the dual mandate of price stability and full employment is easing, suggesting that Powell is paving the way for this [2] - Gundlach recommends that investors consider allocating 30%-40% of their portfolios to unhedged international stocks, which may benefit from local currency appreciation against the dollar [2] - Oxford Economics' Chief U.S. Economist, Michael Pearce, anticipates that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold, with current rates close to neutral and labor market conditions stabilizing, predicting potential rate cuts in June and September under the next chairperson [5]