凯投宏观：新加坡金管局2026年大概率维持货币政策不变

Core Viewpoint - Capital Economics believes that the likelihood of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) maintaining its current monetary policy throughout 2026 is high, despite a recent hawkish tone and an upward revision of inflation forecasts for 2026 [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - MAS announced on January 29 that it would maintain the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) policy slope, width, and midpoint unchanged for the third consecutive time [1] - The core and overall inflation forecast range for 2026 was revised from 0.5%-1.5% to 1%-2%, reflecting short-term price pressures rather than an imminent tightening of policy [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - Key factors supporting MAS's decision to remain unchanged include the current resilience of the Singapore labor market, which may not sustain its strong performance, and a potential gradual slowdown in domestic demand [1] - If the economy experiences moderate cooling while inflation remains controlled, maintaining the existing policy framework would be a reasonable choice [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Several institutions, including Citigroup, DBS Group, and Morgan Asset Management, share a similar view that MAS is likely to retain policy flexibility in the face of ongoing global uncertainties and a near-zero output gap [1]