美联储维持利率不变符合预期 美债收益率冲高回落

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations, while economic activity shows robust expansion but with high uncertainty regarding the economic outlook [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged was anticipated, with a probability exceeding 97% according to CME "FedWatch" [1]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) noted that employment growth remains sluggish, but there are signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate, while inflation remains elevated [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The overall PCE price index increased by 2.9% over the past 12 months, while the core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, rose by 4.3% [2]. - Powell indicated that tariff-induced inflation is expected to dissipate by mid-2026, suggesting a potential easing of inflationary pressures in the future [3]. Group 3: Market Expectations - The market is currently pricing in two rate cuts for this year, with a high probability of maintaining rates in March exceeding 80% [3]. - Analysts from Huatai Securities and CICC suggest that the Fed's January meeting supports a more optimistic view of the U.S. economy and employment market, with expectations of rate cuts potentially occurring after the new chair takes office mid-year [3].