中国金融四十人论坛发布2025年第四季度宏观政策报告

Core Viewpoint - The CF40 report indicates that China's macroeconomic environment in Q4 2025 shows early signs of economic recovery, with expectations for continued marginal improvement in 2026, contingent on robust counter-cyclical policies [1][2] Economic Performance in 2025 - China's macroeconomic indicators such as stock market performance, RMB exchange rate, social financing growth, and corporate deposits have shown significant improvement [1] - Corporate profits have halted a multi-year decline, and consumption and the labor market are generally stable [1] - The report attributes the economic recovery to fiscal support, external demand, and prior price adjustments, while noting that investment and the real estate market still face considerable pressure, indicating weak endogenous economic momentum [1] Strategies for 2026 - To continue expanding domestic demand and enhance endogenous economic momentum in 2026, the report emphasizes the importance of strong counter-cyclical policies [2] - Fiscal policy should involve active borrowing to maintain necessary spending levels, while monetary policy is crucial for stimulating endogenous growth [2] - A loose monetary policy is expected to work by changing expectations and ensuring that microeconomic entities can make viable financial calculations [2] - The central bank's clear commitment to inflation targets and significant reductions in policy interest rates are seen as essential for encouraging private investment and home purchases [2] - The report advocates for a dual approach leveraging both government and market forces to maximize the role of monetary policy in expanding domestic demand [2] International Economic Context - CF40 members highlight the changing international economic environment, noting China's transition from a "small economy" to a "large economy," which makes domestic economic circulation increasingly important [2] - To expand domestic demand, it is essential to allow the market to play a decisive role in resource allocation while enhancing government public policy effectiveness, improving residents' income, and developing the service sector [2]