Di Yi Cai Jing·2026-01-29 06:33Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian stock market is experiencing its worst two-day performance in 30 years, driven by concerns raised by MSCI regarding the market's investability and potential outflows of up to $13 billion [1][3][5]. Market Performance - On January 29, the Jakarta Composite Index fell by as much as 10%, triggering a 30-minute trading halt, following a previous drop of over 8% on January 28, which also led to a trading suspension [3][4]. - The significant sell-off has primarily affected state-owned banks and companies linked to large corporate groups, raising the risk of a technical bear market if the downward trend continues [3][4]. MSCI Concerns - MSCI has expressed serious concerns about the low free float of stocks in the Indonesian market, with over 200 components having a free float ratio below 15%, which distorts the index and poses manipulation risks [4][5]. - MSCI has announced a suspension of certain index adjustments and will freeze the addition of new constituents until issues related to concentrated ownership are addressed by Indonesian regulators [3][4]. Currency Impact - The Indonesian rupiah has depreciated against the US dollar, recording its largest drop since October of the previous year, as investor confidence wanes [5][6]. Analyst Ratings - Both Goldman Sachs and UBS have downgraded their ratings for the Jakarta Composite Index, with Goldman Sachs warning of potential outflows exceeding $13 billion under extreme scenarios [5][6]. Regulatory Response - The Indonesian Stock Exchange has acknowledged MSCI's feedback and is committed to enhancing market data transparency, with plans to publicly disclose free float data starting January 2, 2026 [6][7]. - The exchange aims to raise the minimum free float requirement from the current 7.5% to between 10% and 15%, with a long-term goal of 25%, although no specific timeline has been set [6][7]. Future Considerations - The Indonesian financial regulatory authority is preparing stricter rules for small business listings, while the stock exchange emphasizes the need for increased liquidity to absorb new stock supply [7].