美联储维持利率区间不变 年内降息预期推迟至6月

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, marking a pause in its easing policy after three consecutive "preemptive" rate cuts from September to December 2025, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic economic outlook [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The decision was passed with 10 votes in favor and 2 against, with one less dissenting vote compared to the previous meeting [1] - The language in the meeting statement was upgraded from describing economic expansion as "moderate" to "robust," and the mention of rising unemployment risks was removed, indicating signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate [1][2] - Powell stated that the growth outlook has improved significantly since the last meeting, and current policy is not "clearly tight," suggesting that rate hikes are not a basic assumption for future actions [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Data - Powell indicated that the impact of tariffs has largely been transmitted to the economy, with expectations that tariff-related inflation will dissipate by mid-2026, a delay from previous forecasts [2] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 was revised up to an annualized rate of 4.4%, the fastest growth since 2021, with stable consumer spending [2] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.5% to 4.4%, and while non-farm payroll growth has slightly cooled, the job market remains stable, alleviating some concerns for the Fed [2] Group 3: Future Policy Outlook - The Fed is entering a data observation period to assess the effects of previous rate cuts, with inflation pressures expected to increase in the first half of the year, which may restrict further rate cuts [3] - The first rate cut is likely to be delayed until after the new chair takes office in June, unless there is a significant deterioration in the job market [3] - The Fed may have room for about two rate cuts in 2026, with potential cuts in June and before the September midterm elections, balancing economic support with political considerations [3] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and the stock market showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 index slightly declining but briefly surpassing the 7000-point mark [4] - Precious metals saw significant gains, with spot gold rising over 4.5%, reaching a historical high [4]