华创证券：CPU供需格局优化 国产龙头或迎价值重估机遇

Core View - The report from Huachuang Securities indicates that under the influence of the Agent architecture, CPUs are expected to transition from supplementary resources to one of the core computing power elements, with domestic CPU leaders likely to leverage their ecosystem and customization capabilities to penetrate the incremental market, maintaining a high prosperity cycle through 2026 [1] Demand Side: Agent Applications Drive CPU Demand Upgrade - The explosion of computing power demand is driven by Agent applications, requiring CPUs to support multi-threading and dynamic load adjustments, significantly increasing the time spent on task processing [2] - The number of active Agents is projected to surge from approximately 28.6 million in 2025 to 2.216 billion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 139% [2] - U.S. data center construction spending is expected to reach $43.8 billion by October 2025, more than double the amount in the same period of 2024 [2] Supply Side: Advanced Process Resource Allocation and Packaging Bottlenecks - Advanced process resources are prioritized for GPUs, with TSMC's N2 and N3 capacities being allocated to major companies like Apple and NVIDIA, limiting the wafer allocation for consumer and enterprise CPUs [4] - Backend packaging technology bottlenecks have led to CPU shipment cycles extending from the normal 8-10 weeks to over 24 weeks due to high utilization rates [4] - A shortage of key materials, such as low thermal expansion coefficient glass, is critical for the industry's transition to glass substrates, which are replacing organic materials in high-power AI chip packaging [4] - CPU manufacturers are adopting a more conservative strategy from 2024 to 2025, reducing production capacity and inventory levels, resulting in tight inventory conditions [4] Conclusion - The combination of structural demand shifts from Agent applications and large-scale demand from intelligent computing centers is expected to drive a new round of growth in the CPU industry [3] - The CPU supply may enter a tight balance due to multiple constraints [5]