镍价彻底火了！全球供应格局生变 短期是否警惕回调？

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices are experiencing a strong upward trend due to a restructured supply-demand dynamic, with prices reaching between 149,500 and 152,000 yuan per ton, averaging 150,750 yuan per ton, an increase of 2,250 yuan per ton from the previous day [1] Supply Side Analysis - The supply side is characterized by a rigid contraction, with a significant reduction in nickel mining quotas in Indonesia, which decreased by 34% year-on-year for 2026, alongside declining ore grades and environmental shutdowns of some mines [1] - The global supply of nickel ore has sharply decreased, leading to a situation where actual supply is generally adequate but with high inventory differentiation and structural contradictions [1] - The reduction in Indonesian nickel mining quotas is a major variable that, while not immediately altering the global supply landscape, is reshaping market expectations and will likely push global nickel supply-demand towards a tighter balance in the long term [1] Demand Side Analysis - Demand is being driven by both the new energy sector and traditional industries, with increased nickel usage in high-nickel electric vehicles and a significant rise in demand for nickel sulfate [2] - The stainless steel sector is providing stable demand support, and short-term export demand is being bolstered by national nickel storage plans and adjustments in battery export tax rates [2] - The upstream raw material shortage and high costs are concentrating bargaining power among leading suppliers, while actual operating rates in the midstream smelting sector are limited due to raw material constraints [2] Market Trading Dynamics - The current market for nickel shows characteristics of "supply tightness and rigid demand," with traders raising prices and even halting shipments due to low inventory levels and bullish market sentiment [2] - Downstream companies in the new energy battery and stainless steel sectors are making necessary purchases to ensure continuous production, leading to a slight increase in spot premiums and further confirming the tight resource situation [2] Price Trend Forecast - In the short term, nickel prices are expected to maintain a strong upward trend, with a core operating range projected between 148,000 and 155,000 yuan per ton [2] - The long-term outlook indicates a structural supply shortage due to resource policy constraints, contrasting sharply with explosive demand growth from the electric vehicle industry, potentially leading to a supply-demand gap of 120,000 tons by 2026, a record high [2]