金融ETF（510230）涨超2%，银行板块或迎修复

Core Viewpoint - The financial ETF (510230) has risen over 2%, indicating a potential recovery in the banking sector, with expectations for credit growth in 2026 to follow an early investment and early return strategy [1] Group 1: Credit Market Outlook - It is anticipated that in the first quarter, new credit will account for 62% to 65% of the total for the year, although the credit pace in early January may be moderate due to various factors [1] - The expected new RMB loans for the year are around 15.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease, but the decline in loan yield is expected to slow down, maintaining a balance between volume and price [1] Group 2: Deposit Trends - Large banks are expected to exceed expectations in total deposits at the beginning of the year, but the stability of these deposits is poor, which may disrupt banks' asset allocation behavior [1] - The non-bankization of deposits may lead to liquidity risk adjustments for some banks, particularly those under pressure from the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR), potentially causing disturbances in interbank certificate pricing [1] Group 3: Financial ETF Overview - The financial ETF (510230) tracks the 180 Financial Index (000018), which selects representative listed companies from banking, insurance, and securities sectors to reflect the overall performance of larger, more liquid financial enterprises in the Chinese market [1]