智通财经网·2026-01-29 07:46Core Insights - The commercial vehicle market in China is expected to see significant growth in 2025, driven by the strong performance of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and supportive policies for vehicle upgrades [1][7][12] - In December 2025, the sales of commercial vehicles reached 300,000 units, marking a 5% year-on-year increase and a 15% month-on-month increase [7][12] - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles is projected to reach 46% by December 2025, a substantial increase from 29% in December 2024 [12][14] Commercial Vehicle Market Analysis - The total sales of commercial vehicles in China for 2025 are forecasted to be 3.1 million units, representing a 9% year-on-year growth compared to the stable period since 2022 [1][7] - The market showed a strong upward trend from March to December 2025, with December achieving a historical high for the month [5][7] - The sales of new energy commercial vehicles in December 2025 are expected to hit 140,000 units, reflecting a 71% year-on-year increase and a 49% month-on-month increase [1][8] New Energy Vehicle Performance - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles has increased significantly, from approximately 3% in 2019-2021 to 46% in December 2025 [12][14] - The sales of new energy commercial vehicles for the entire year of 2025 are projected to reach 910,000 units, a 57% increase compared to the previous year [1][8] - The growth in new energy vehicle sales is attributed to strong demand and government incentives, particularly in the commercial vehicle sector [10][12] Market Structure and Competition - The market for commercial vehicles is characterized by a stable structure, with significant contributions from light and heavy-duty trucks [14][18] - Key players in the commercial vehicle market include Beiqi Foton, SAIC-GM-Wuling, and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, which dominate the light truck, heavy truck, and bus segments respectively [15][18] - The performance of heavy-duty trucks has improved significantly due to subsidy policies, with notable growth in electric heavy-duty trucks in regions like Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai [16][17] Regional Market Dynamics - The light truck market is particularly strong in regions such as East China and South China, with increasing sales in these areas [18][19] - The penetration of new energy vehicles in the truck segment reached 38% in December 2025, while the bus segment saw a penetration rate of 78% [14][18] - The market for new energy light trucks is primarily concentrated in East China and South China, with significant growth observed in these regions [19][21]