长江有色：29日铝价继续暴涨 今日现货市场交投氛围爆火

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing significant price fluctuations, with both domestic and international prices rising sharply due to various macroeconomic and supply-demand factors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - LME three-month aluminum price reported at $3305 per ton, up $41.5 per ton, a 1.27% increase from the previous trading day [1]. - Domestic futures for Shanghai aluminum main contract 2603 opened at 25430 CNY per ton, reaching a high of 25975 CNY and closing at 25590 CNY, up 725 CNY, a 2.92% increase [1]. - The trading volume for the Shanghai aluminum main contract increased by 76436 hands to 1013508 hands, with a solid open interest of 342523 hands [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply-side challenges include high electricity prices and uncertainties affecting aluminum plant restarts, although domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has slightly increased [3]. - Demand is weakening as downstream consumption declines ahead of the Spring Festival, but factors like pre-holiday stockpiling and photovoltaic exports are providing some support [3]. - Social inventory of aluminum ingots has been accumulating, exceeding levels from the same period in the past two years, which is exerting some pressure on aluminum prices [3]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Influences - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.50% - 3.75%, aligning with market expectations, which is influencing market sentiment positively [2]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran, are contributing to heightened market risk sentiment, which is expected to enhance the willingness of funds to enter the market [2]. - Overall, the aluminum price is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by macroeconomic sentiment despite slight increases in supply [3].