邦达亚洲:美联储如期按兵不动 美元指数反弹收涨

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations, while two members voted against the decision, favoring a 25 basis point cut [1][6][7]. Economic Indicators - Current indicators show that U.S. economic activity is expanding at a steady pace, with slow job growth and a stabilizing unemployment rate, while inflation remains relatively high [1][6][7]. - The FOMC aims for long-term full employment and a 2% inflation target, acknowledging high uncertainty in the economic outlook [1][7]. Monetary Policy Assessment - The FOMC will continue to monitor new information affecting the economic outlook and is prepared to adjust monetary policy if risks to achieving its goals arise [1][7]. - The assessment will consider a wide range of information, including labor market conditions, inflation pressures, and developments in financial and international situations [1][7]. Powell's Remarks - Powell noted that the economic outlook has "clearly improved" since the last meeting, with reduced inflation and employment risks [2][8]. - He emphasized that the current policy stance is "appropriate" and that future decisions will be made based on data [2][8]. - Powell highlighted that the U.S. economy is "fundamentally strong," benefiting from AI-related spending, and that the labor market may be stabilizing [2][8]. Inflation Insights - Powell mentioned that the overall core PCE inflation might rise by 3% in December, with unexpected inflation primarily due to one-time price increases from tariffs [2][8]. - He expects the impact of tariffs on goods to peak this year and then decline [2][8]. Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar index rose slightly, supported by short covering and the Fed's decision to maintain rates, along with Powell's hawkish comments [3][9]. - The euro weakened against the dollar, influenced by profit-taking and the Fed's decision, as well as dovish comments from ECB officials [4][10]. - The British pound also declined, pressured by the dollar's strength, although expectations of the Bank of England not rushing to cut rates limited its decline [5][11].