Forget Rigetti Computing: This Quantum Veteran With Real Cash Flow Is the Smarter Long‑Term Bet

Core Insights - Quantum computing is emerging as a transformative technology, with significant investor interest reflected in the stock prices of companies like Rigetti Computing [1] - The year 2026 may serve as a reality check for quantum computing investments, suggesting a shift in focus from newer companies to established players like IBM [2] Company Insights - Rigetti Computing is recognized for its superconducting quantum computing technology, with its Cepheus-1-108Q system expected to be the largest modular quantum computing system available by the end of Q1 2026 [4] - Rigetti's manufacturing capabilities are highlighted, as it has established the first dedicated foundry for quantum integrated circuits, positioning itself as a leader in design and fabrication [5] - Despite its potential, Rigetti faces challenges, including ongoing financial losses, with reported revenue of only $1.9 million in the latest quarter, and competition from other companies using similar superconducting technology [6] IBM Insights - IBM is a major competitor to Rigetti, boasting over 300 clients and partners, and has developed the widely used Qiskit software for quantum computing [7][8] - IBM's Quantum Nighthawk QPU, which supports 120 qubits, has already been released, while Rigetti's system launch has been delayed [8] - IBM aims to achieve quantum advantage by 2026 and has plans for a fault-tolerant 200-qubit quantum computer by 2029, with aspirations for systems supporting up to 2,000 qubits beyond 2033 [9] - Financially, IBM is well-positioned, expecting a free cash flow of around $14 billion for the full year 2025, with a cash position of $14.9 billion at the end of Q3 2025 [10] Investment Perspective - While Rigetti Computing has long-term potential, its success is contingent on its technology matching or exceeding that of competitors [11] - IBM's diversified business model allows it to remain successful even if its quantum computing investments do not yield immediate results, showcasing its adaptability in the evolving tech landscape [11] - Overall, IBM is viewed as the more strategically positioned company in the quantum computing race compared to Rigetti [12]