尺素金声｜如何看待人民币升值对出口的影响？——澄清当前关于中国经济的一些模糊认识①

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar has sparked diverse opinions in the market, with some believing it may enter a sustained appreciation phase, while others express concerns about its negative impact on export enterprises [1] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - On January 23, the RMB to USD central parity rate was reported at 6.9929, marking a 90 basis point increase from the previous trading day and reaching the highest level since May 2023 [1] - The RMB has remained above the "7" mark since breaking it at the end of last year, with a projected 4.4% appreciation against the USD by 2025 [1] - Factors contributing to the recent RMB appreciation include a weakening USD, robust Chinese economic fundamentals, and released demand for foreign exchange [1] Group 2: Impact on Exports - Traditionally, RMB appreciation negatively affects export enterprises by reducing price competitiveness, decreasing RMB returns from exports, and compressing profit margins [3] - However, the impact of RMB appreciation on exports is gradually diminishing due to the diversification of foreign trade structures and the optimization of export product categories [3] - The increasing ability of enterprises to adapt to exchange rate fluctuations, with hedging ratios rising to around 30%, helps mitigate the impact of currency volatility on operations [3] Group 3: Import Perspective - RMB appreciation enhances its purchasing power in international markets, which can lower the import costs of bulk commodities and high-end equipment [3] Group 4: RMB Internationalization - The pace of RMB internationalization is accelerating, with cross-border RMB payments reaching 35 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 14% year-on-year increase [4] - The acceptance of RMB in international trade settlements is improving, particularly among countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative and regions like ASEAN and Africa [4] Group 5: Economic Resilience - The core support for maintaining RMB exchange rate stability comes from the strong resilience of the Chinese economy, characterized by a large market size, complete industrial chains, and ongoing technological and industrial innovation [4] - The continuous increase in foreign exchange trading volume and the diversification of market participants enhance the market's ability to absorb external changes [4] Group 6: Market Mechanism and Risk Management - In a market-driven exchange rate formation mechanism, RMB exchange rates are determined by market supply and demand, with fluctuations being a normal occurrence [5] - Companies are encouraged to focus on core competencies and enhance international competitiveness while adopting a "risk-neutral" approach to manage currency risks using various hedging tools [5]