特朗普加大对伊威胁提振风险溢价！布油连涨三天触及70美元

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have risen for the third consecutive day due to increased military threats from the U.S. against Iran, with Brent crude surpassing $70 per barrel for the first time since September of the previous year [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude futures rose approximately 2.7%, reaching over $70 per barrel, while WTI crude futures exceeded $65 per barrel [1]. - As of the latest update, Brent crude futures were up 1.89% at $69.69 per barrel, and WTI crude futures increased by 1.27% to $64.48 per barrel [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - President Trump issued a "last ultimatum" to Iran, indicating a potential military strike, which has heightened geopolitical risks and contributed to the rise in oil prices [2]. - Iran has responded strongly, stating that any military action from the U.S. would be considered the start of a war [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Trends - The recent threats from Trump have injected a risk premium into oil prices, with traders seeking to hedge against potential U.S.-Iran conflict [3]. - Call options have been priced higher than put options for approximately 14 months, indicating a sustained concern over geopolitical risks [3]. - Hedge funds have increased their net long positions in crude oil to the highest level since August of the previous year, reflecting growing confidence in rising oil prices despite earlier expectations of oversupply [6]. Group 4: Supply Chain Risks - The potential for U.S. military action against Iran could threaten oil supplies from the Middle East, which accounts for about one-third of global oil supply [6]. - The probability of significant disruptions in energy flows in the Gulf region due to Iranian retaliation has been raised from 15% to 20% by energy consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group [6].