理响中国·聚焦2026中国经济｜“主动力”+“稳定锚”！一图解读开局之年消费新趋势

Core Insights - By 2025, consumer spending in China is projected to contribute over 50% to economic growth, reaching 52%, with consumption becoming the main driver of economic growth and stability [1] Group 1: Consumer Policy and Trends - The implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy will be optimized this year, promoting the expansion and upgrading of goods consumption, including nationwide unified subsidy standards for automobile scrapping and replacement, as well as six categories of key home appliance upgrades [3] - New generation smart devices, such as smart glasses and smart home products, will be included in the subsidy range [4] - The focus of appliance subsidies will shift towards first-level energy efficiency products, while automotive subsidies will favor new energy vehicles [5] Group 2: Consumer Sales Data - In 2025, the retail sales of goods from key enterprises are expected to grow by 3.4% compared to the previous year, with an acceleration of 0.7 percentage points, largely benefiting from the implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy [6] - Since the implementation of the old-for-new policy in 2024, consumer goods sales have reached 3.92 trillion yuan, benefiting 494 million consumers, with 18.3 million vehicles replaced under the program, nearly 60% of which are new energy vehicles [8] Group 3: Service Consumption Growth - In 2026, there will be an acceleration in cultivating new growth points in service consumption, aiming to release the potential of service consumption [10] - The "Buy in China" series of activities will continue to be organized to build the "Buy in China" brand, focusing on creating distinctive service consumption brands in areas such as sports, performing arts, tourism, and winter sports [11] - The retail sales of services are expected to grow by 5.5% in 2025, with per capita spending on service consumption increasing by 4.5% [15] Group 4: Expert Insights - The shift in consumer behavior from primarily goods consumption to a combination of goods and services consumption indicates a new phase in China's consumption structure, which is expected to inject sustained and strong momentum into high-quality economic development [17] - The upgrade in service consumption signifies a transition from meeting basic needs to pursuing high-quality living and personalized experiences, driving innovation in consumption scenarios [18]