ATFX:美原油突破64美元 霍尔木兹海峡成焦点

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant potential of crude oil, referred to as the "initial bull," compared to the "crazy bull" of gold, which is currently experiencing a notable rise [1][6] - As of January 8, WTI crude oil has shown a strong upward trend, with a closing price that increased by $2 from the opening price, reaching a peak of $64.26, marking a four-month high [1][6] - The rise in both gold and crude oil prices is attributed to a sharp decline in the US dollar index, which fell from near the 100 mark to around 95 within two weeks, providing upward momentum for both commodities [2][7] Group 2 - The current market focus is on the geopolitical tensions between Iran and the US-Israel alliance, with the US aircraft carrier Lincoln entering the Persian Gulf, raising concerns about potential conflict [2][8] - Should a conflict arise, gold prices are expected to surge due to increased safe-haven demand, while crude oil prices may rise significantly if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, affecting the transport of 20 million barrels of oil daily [8] - The article suggests that while gold may be nearing the end of its upward trend, crude oil is positioned at the beginning of a potential bull market, with projections indicating it could become a leading investment opportunity by 2026 [2][8] Group 3 - In terms of market structure, WTI crude oil has formed a double bottom at $55.9 and $54.86, with the latter serving as a reliable support level, and the price has accelerated upward since January 8 [5][10] - The previous mid-term high of $62.36 has been surpassed, and the market is currently seeking new mid-term highs, with $54.86 identified as the most dependable support level [5][10] - Close attention is advised for the formation of a daily top pattern, which could indicate that the upward trend is approaching mid-term resistance levels [10]