UnitedHealth (UNH) Sees Modest Target Cut at Morgan Stanley as Outlook Stabilizes

Core Viewpoint - UnitedHealth Group is experiencing a challenging period with a modest earnings beat but weaker-than-expected revenue guidance, indicating difficulties in its turnaround efforts amid rising medical costs [3][4]. Financial Performance - In Q4, UnitedHealth reported a net income of $10 million, or $0.01 per share, down from $5.54 billion a year earlier. Adjusted earnings were $2.11 per share, while revenue increased to $100.81 billion year over year [4]. - The company anticipates revenue for 2026 to be above $439 billion, representing a decline of about 2% from the previous year, marking the first revenue drop in a decade [6]. Strategic Initiatives - The management is focusing on a refreshed leadership team and a strategy that includes shrinking membership, implementing price increases, trimming benefits, and enhancing transparency to rebuild margins and restore investor confidence [5]. - The company has exited South American and European markets to concentrate on its core U.S. business, aiming to strengthen its balance sheet and set the stage for long-term growth [7]. Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley analyst Erin Wright has slightly reduced the price target for UnitedHealth to $409 from $411, maintaining an Overweight rating, as investor sentiment improves due to the company's disciplined Medicare Advantage benefit reset [2]. - The new Medicare V28 coding system is expected to reduce 2026 revenue by approximately $6 billion, affecting both UnitedHealthcare and the Optum unit [7].