Is a Beat in Store for Chubb Limited This Earnings Season?

Core Insights - Chubb Limited (CB) is anticipated to show improvements in both revenue and earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025, with results expected to be reported on February 3, after market close [1] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CB's fourth-quarter revenues is $15.1 billion, reflecting a 5.8% increase from the previous year [2] - The consensus estimate for earnings is $6.58 per share, which indicates a year-over-year increase of 9.3% [2] - The earnings estimate has risen by 2.7% over the past 30 days [2] Earnings Prediction Model - The model indicates a likely earnings beat for CB, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +0.84% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3][4] Factors Influencing Q4 Results - The fourth-quarter revenue is expected to benefit from strong investment results and premium revenue growth, driven by a robust product portfolio and strong retention across various product lines and regions [5] - The high net-worth personal lines business is projected to see growth from new business and retention, with positive rates across all lines [6] - Life Insurance premiums are expected to increase due to strong new business in North Asia, particularly in Huatai, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Korea [6] Investment Income and Underwriting Profitability - Net investment income is anticipated to be $1.775 billion, benefiting from higher average invested assets and reinvestment rates [7] - The combined ratio is expected to improve due to better pricing and prudent underwriting, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate set at 83.4 [8] Expense and Share Buybacks - Expenses are projected to rise due to increased policy acquisition costs and administrative expenses, estimated at $11.4 billion [8] - Share buybacks in the quarter are likely to positively impact the bottom line [9] Summary of Q4 Performance - CB's Q4 earnings are projected at $6.58 per share, with strong premiums, investment income, and digital initiatives expected to enhance top-line performance [11]