Is Oracle Still Worth Chasing, or Is the Stock Set to Plunge More?

Core Insights - Oracle's stock has nearly halved, with a current market cap below $470 billion, despite significant investments in AI infrastructure [1] - The company raised its fiscal 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $50 billion from $35 billion, indicating aggressive spending plans [1] - Oracle's total debt and lease obligations have reached approximately $380 billion, raising concerns about its financial stability [1] Financial Performance - Oracle's total debt was approximately $108.1 billion as of Q2 FY 2026, with an additional $24 billion in lease liabilities [1] - The company raised $38 billion in term loans in October 2025 for data center projects, alongside $18 billion in investment-grade bond financing [1] - Future lease obligations have increased to $248 billion, with some leases extending up to 19 years [1] Market Position and Strategy - Oracle's Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) reached $523 billion, largely driven by a $300 billion contract with OpenAI [1] - The company is not considered a top-tier general-purpose cloud provider like AWS, Azure, or Google Cloud, which limits its competitive edge [1] - Analysts express skepticism about Oracle's ability to convert its backlog into actual revenue quickly enough to service its debt [1] Risks and Challenges - OpenAI is projected to face a $207 billion funding shortfall by 2030, raising doubts about its ability to fulfill its commitments to Oracle [1] - The stock remains overvalued, and further declines may be necessary before it becomes a viable investment option [1] - The reliance on OpenAI's success poses significant risks to Oracle's financial health and stock performance [1]