Crude Prices Rally on Iran Tensions

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices are experiencing upward momentum, with crude oil reaching a 4-month high and gasoline a 2-month high, driven by geopolitical tensions and inventory reports [2][3] Geopolitical Factors - President Trump's threats of military action against Iran unless a nuclear deal is negotiated have contributed to the rise in crude oil prices, with a warning that US warships are prepared for action [3] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is also supporting crude prices, as Russia's stance on territorial issues suggests that peace talks are unlikely, maintaining restrictions on Russian crude [4] Inventory and Production Reports - The EIA's weekly report indicated an unexpected decline in crude inventories, while gasoline supplies increased less than anticipated, providing additional support for prices [2] - The IEA has revised its 2026 global crude surplus estimate down to 3.7 million barrels per day (bpd) from 3.815 million bpd, indicating tighter future supply [5] - OPEC+ has decided to maintain its production pause in Q1 2026, following a previous increase in December 2025, as it aims to manage the emerging global oil surplus [7] Storage and Supply Dynamics - Vortexa reported a 0.6% week-over-week decrease in crude oil stored on stationary tankers, indicating a potential tightening of supply [6]