中信证券：复盘新能源汽车，掘金人形机器人

Core Insights - The report analyzes the development and investment cycles of the electric vehicle (EV) industry and draws parallels to the humanoid robot industry, suggesting that humanoid robots are currently in a technology validation phase, but their commercialization timeline will be shorter than that of EVs [3][27][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-value, clear-structure, and high-certainty segments within the robot industry, as these segments exhibit the greatest performance elasticity [17][22][41] Industry Comparison - Both the EV and humanoid robot industries are considered global strategic industries, initiated by Tesla, and follow similar patterns of technological validation, capital support, and policy-driven market dynamics [4][28] - The complexity of intelligent robotics is higher than that of EVs, with more fragmented application scenarios, leading to greater uncertainty in industry development [4][28] Investment Strategy - The report recommends actively seeking leading companies in the humanoid robot sector that have high barriers to entry in terms of non-standardization, technology, cost, and production expansion, as these companies are likely to navigate through industry cycles successfully [22][41] - The humanoid robot industry is expected to follow a path from closed to open systems, from standardization to complexity, and from production to everyday life applications [23][30] Technological Development - Current technological challenges in humanoid robots include improving autonomous decision-making capabilities, enhancing motion flexibility and stability, and reducing overall costs [31][34] - The report notes that while the cost structure of humanoid robots is similar to that of EVs, the industry is still in its infancy, and no dominant players have emerged yet, akin to CATL in the battery sector [41] Market Dynamics - The EV industry has experienced four major market cycles driven by macroeconomic factors, policy changes, and technological advancements, which may serve as a reference for the humanoid robot industry as it develops [10][11][39] - The report highlights that the investment landscape for humanoid robots is currently characterized by thematic investments, similar to earlier stages of the EV market [39][41]