华泰期货：双焦昨日上涨，原因找到了...

Core Viewpoint - The black commodities sector, particularly coking coal and coke, has experienced a general price increase, with coking coal rising by 3.93% to 1165.0 yuan and coke increasing by 3.20% to 1723.0 yuan as of market close [2][9]. Group 1: Reasons for Price Increase - The macroeconomic environment shows strong bullish sentiment across various sectors, leading to an overflow of optimism towards fundamentally sound, undervalued commodities [3][10]. - For coke, data from Fenwei indicates a further contraction in coking profits this week, with reduced production and inventory at absolute low levels. Pre-holiday replenishment demand from downstream sectors and coal prices providing cost support have contributed to the resilience of coke prices [3][10]. - In terms of coking coal, Fenwei data shows an increase in premium coal production and a decrease in inventory at low levels compared to the same period last year. Despite high levels of imported coal, there are expectations of marginally weaker near-term supply as the Spring Festival approaches, alongside a rebound in thermal coal prices, which supports coking coal prices [3][10]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The Indian government's designation of coking coal as a key strategic mineral, coupled with India's high dependence on imported coking coal, may stimulate speculative demand [3][10]. - Overall, the fundamental contradictions in coking coal and coke markets are limited, with pre-holiday replenishment providing price support. Market sentiment is driving a rapid rebound in both commodities, and short-term fluctuations are expected to continue. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment, progress in downstream replenishment, and coal supply conditions [3][10].