智通财经网·2026-01-30 02:15Core Viewpoint - The market generally holds a pessimistic long-term outlook on traditional fossil energy, but the energy structure transformation is a lengthy and complex systemic project. Coal, as a "strategic ballast" for supply security, cannot be replaced in the short term, and rigid demand will continue to solidify the industry's fundamentals. In this context, the coal sector's "cash cow" attributes are becoming increasingly stable, and the reasonable high-level operation of coal prices is expected to further drive industry profitability and dividend capacity beyond expectations, making long-term investment value worthy of attention [1]. Supply Side - The coal industry supply side is undergoing a profound restructuring. The six national departments issued guidelines in December 2025 to control coal consumption in coal-fired power generation and coal-to-natural gas, alongside stricter ongoing supervision in safety and environmental protection. This will lead to a rational and high-quality transformation of supply order. The release of industry capacity is expected to continue in a stable yet tight manner, with the voice of high-quality compliant capacity continuing to rise. The trend of resource nationalism driven by de-globalization is highlighting coal's core value in ensuring national energy security. Since December 2025, Indonesia has lowered its coal production targets for 2026 and reintroduced a 1%-5% coal export tax while tightening foreign exchange management to consolidate resource control [1]. Demand Side - The rigid growth of electricity demand remains unchanged as of December 2025, with resilience in coal power demand. The coal chemical sector is also experiencing new growth momentum, with projects like coal-to-oil and coal-to-olefins accelerating. In December, chemical coal consumption increased by 7% year-on-year, continuing a high growth trend and becoming the core driving force for demand growth. Overall, coal demand is expected to remain stable and achieve slight growth in 2026 [2]. Investment Analysis - The company is optimistic about the continued rebound in thermal coal prices and suggests focusing on growth-oriented stocks such as Tebian Electric Apparatus, Jinko Coal Industry, Huayang Co., New Hope Energy, Huaihe Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining. It recommends stable operating high-dividend stocks like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, while also suggesting attention to Ordos. Additionally, it recommends flexible coking coal stocks such as Shanxi Coking Coal, Huaibei Mining, and Lu'an Environmental Energy [3].