不锈钢：商品情绪和基本面改善共振 盘面整体上涨

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing fluctuations with a strong overall sentiment, driven by supply reductions and cost support, despite weak demand conditions [3] Supply - As of January 2026, the estimated crude steel production from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is 3.426 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 165,500 tons (5.08%) and a year-on-year increase of 248,300 tons [2] - The production forecast for February is 2.651 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 226,200 tons (12.49%) [2] - Some steel mills are increasing production cuts and initiating maintenance ahead of the holiday season [2] Inventory - Social inventory has slightly accumulated, with a trend of decreasing warehouse receipts [2] - As of January 30, the social inventory of 300 series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan is 457,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,700 tons [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's stainless steel inventory is 43,579 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4,950 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The nickel ore market is tight due to limited shipments from Indonesian mines, with nickel ore premiums rising to $28-32 per wet ton [3] - The high-nickel pig iron market is experiencing weak inquiries, leading to a narrowing of price increases [3] - The chromium iron market remains firm due to limited resource circulation and slowed supply growth [3] Demand - Demand is weak, with traditional and emerging sectors showing reduced purchasing activity due to financial pressures on downstream enterprises [3] - The expected impact on production from the 300 series stainless steel is 485,000 tons due to maintenance and production cuts [3] Price Outlook - The main price reference is set between 14,200 and 15,200, with expectations of strong fluctuations in the short term [4]