年内加息呼声渐消 经济学家普遍预计欧洲央行将维持利率不变至明年底

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain current interest rates until at least the end of next year, with market expectations for rate hikes in 2026 diminishing [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Projections - Economists predict that the ECB will keep the deposit rate at 2% during the monetary policy meeting on February 4-5 [1]. - The proportion of economists expecting at least one rate hike before 2028 has increased from about 25% to one-third, although the percentage anticipating a hike within this year has decreased [1]. Group 2: Economic Uncertainty - Ongoing economic uncertainties, including potential trade conflicts initiated by U.S. President Trump, are contributing to a cautious outlook [4][7]. - The strong euro is putting pressure on Eurozone exports, further complicating the inflation outlook, which remains below target [4]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Growth - The ECB's latest economic forecasts indicate that consumer price inflation in the Eurozone will be slightly below the 2% target in 2026 and 2027, returning to target levels only by 2028 [8]. - Economists foresee greater downside risks to inflation in the coming months, with a slight increase in upside risks for 2027 [8]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Despite the prevailing sentiment, traders are increasing bets on potential rate cuts by the ECB, with about 40% of economists believing that the likelihood of a rate cut is higher than that of a rate hike [9]. - The economic outlook for the Eurozone is heavily reliant on increased government spending on infrastructure and defense, particularly in Germany, which is expected to outperform the Eurozone average in this regard [9]. Group 5: Structural Economic Factors - A shift in perspective among economists indicates that structural factors are now seen as the primary constraints on Eurozone economic output, contrasting with previous views that emphasized cyclical factors [12]. - The ECB is likely to emphasize that monetary policy has limited effectiveness in addressing structural economic shortcomings, aiming to quell market speculation regarding rate cuts [12].