强势延续！英央行政策立场谨 慎利差优势支撑英镑

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is experiencing strength against major currencies, driven by a recovering UK economy and diverging monetary policies between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The UK economy shows unexpected recovery, with the S&P Global Composite PMI rising from 51.4 to 53.9, the highest in 21 months, surpassing market expectations of 52.0 [2] - December retail sales increased by 0.4% year-on-year, rebounding significantly from November's -0.3%, while wage growth of 3.8% exceeds the inflation rate of 3.2%, indicating stable purchasing power [2] - The unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in August-October 2025, the highest since 2021, with forecasts suggesting it may remain around 5.0% in 2026, potentially limiting economic recovery momentum [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Bank of England cut the benchmark interest rate to 3.75% on December 18, 2025, marking the sixth cut since the easing cycle began in August 2024, with internal divisions among policymakers regarding further cuts [3] - Inflation showed signs of stickiness, with the CPI rising from a low of 3.2% in November to 3.4% in December, driven by increased tobacco taxes and holiday demand, leading to a cautious stance from the Bank of England [3] - Market expectations for rate cuts in February have dissipated, with predictions suggesting only 1-2 cuts throughout 2026, potentially delaying the first cut until after April [3] Group 3: Currency Trends - Diverging monetary policy expectations between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve are enhancing the relative strength of the pound, with market expectations for two rate cuts by the Fed exceeding 70% [4] - The pound is benefiting from a weaker dollar, with the dollar index hitting its lowest since October, which has contributed to the pound's strength against the dollar [4] - The pound's technical indicators show a bullish trend, with the price breaking above previous resistance levels and maintaining an upward trajectory [4][5] Group 4: Market Predictions - Analysts have differing views on the pound's trajectory for 2026, with optimistic forecasts suggesting it could reach 1.40 against the dollar by mid-year, while cautious predictions indicate a potential drop below 1.3450 by March [6] - Concerns about slowing economic growth and political uncertainties are prevalent, with predictions of GDP growth slowing to 1.0% in 2026, which could impact market confidence [6]