加元强势回升 政策油价双重支撑

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar (CAD) is experiencing a strong fluctuation against major currencies, with the USD/CAD exchange rate hitting a 15-month low, influenced by the Bank of Canada's monetary policy and external factors such as oil prices and trade relations [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Currency Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the CAD has shown strength against major currencies, with the USD/CAD rate reported at 1.3504, reflecting a slight daily increase of 0.12% [1] - The CAD has stabilized around 0.7380 against the USD, continuing its recent rebound trend [1] - The exchange rate against the Chinese yuan has also rebounded, with 100 CAD equating to 512.29 CNY, alleviating earlier depreciation pressures [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - The Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% for the second consecutive time, aligning with market expectations, and indicated that this rate is suitable for achieving a 2% inflation target while supporting economic recovery [1] - The Bank of Canada has revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.7%, with projections of 1.1% and 1.5% growth for 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating a gradual but positive recovery [1] Group 3: Interest Rate Differentials - The divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve is strengthening the CAD's position, with market expectations of two rate cuts by the Fed this year [2] - The narrowing interest rate differential between Canada and the U.S. is reducing the attractiveness of the USD, indirectly supporting the CAD's strength [2] Group 4: Oil Price Correlation - The CAD, being a commodity currency, has a positive correlation of approximately 0.7 with international oil prices, which are currently rebounding due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [3] - Recent increases in WTI crude oil prices, which surged by 4% to $65.90 per barrel, are expected to enhance Canadian crude oil export prospects, providing robust support for the CAD [3] Group 5: Economic Fundamentals - Despite the CAD's recent strength, underlying economic weaknesses limit its appreciation potential, with the unemployment rate rising to 6.8% in December 2025, the highest since 2021 [3] - Declining consumer confidence and low corporate investment continue to highlight insufficient domestic demand, posing challenges for sustained CAD strength [3] Group 6: Trade Pressures - Increased average tariffs from the U.S. on Canadian goods, now at 5.9%, are leading to a decline in Canadian exports and reduced corporate investment intentions [4] - The upcoming review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) in summer 2026 could significantly impact Canadian exports if terms change, further increasing volatility risks for the CAD [4] Group 7: Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for USD/CAD remains bearish, with the pair consolidating around 1.3534 after breaking below the key 1.3700 level [4] - Short-term support levels are focused on 1.3534 and the 1.3600-1.3620 range, while resistance is seen at 1.3760-1.3780 [4]