高瞻远“猪”：一致性预期存在 2026年上半年仔猪价格或涨

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the pig market prices are expected to decline year-on-year in 2025, leading to reduced profitability for farmers and a decrease in the willingness to restock piglets [1][3] - In 2025, the average price of piglets is projected to be 391.02 yuan per head, a year-on-year decrease of 15.70%, reflecting a seasonal trend of "rise-fall-slight rise" [1] - The average price of live pigs in 2025 is expected to be 13.74 yuan per kilogram, down 17.97% year-on-year, with the highest price recorded at 16.36 yuan per kilogram and the lowest at 10.72 yuan per kilogram [3] Group 2 - In 2025, nearly half of the time, the piglet fattening model is expected to operate at a loss, with an average profit of 20.32 yuan per head, a decrease of 376.93 yuan per head year-on-year [5] - The cost of piglet restocking is anticipated to fluctuate, impacting the profitability of piglet fattening, which is primarily influenced by the costs of restocking and live pig prices [5] - For the first half of 2026, piglet prices may rise due to seasonal factors, despite ongoing downward pressure on live pig prices [7][9] Group 3 - The supply pressure for live pigs in 2026 remains significant, with the number of breeding sows showing a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, which may lead to a year-on-year increase in live pig output [7] - The average price of piglets in the first half of 2026 is expected to range between 270-430 yuan per head, supported by farmers' optimism about the second half of the year [9]