瑞郎强势攀升央行零利率坚守

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) continues to strengthen against the US Dollar (USD), driven by its safe-haven status and supportive monetary policy from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the CHF/USD exchange rate was 1.3043, reflecting a slight decline of 0.3522% from the previous trading day, with a year-to-date increase of over 2.5% [1]. - The USD/CHF rate fell below 0.7640, marking a 176-month low, highlighting the CHF's strong position in the currency market [1]. - The CHF's performance aligns with historical stability during periods of market turmoil, reinforcing its role as a core safe-haven currency [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - The SNB maintained its policy rate at 0% during the December 2025 monetary policy meeting, with expectations to keep it unchanged until at least the second half of 2027 [1][2]. - The SNB's commitment to a stable monetary policy supports key export industries like watchmaking and pharmaceuticals, alleviating pressures from a strong currency [2]. - The SNB retains the option for regular foreign exchange interventions to manage CHF fluctuations, aiming to balance currency strength with economic stability [2][4]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Switzerland's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year rate of 0.1% in December 2025, indicating a controlled inflation environment that aligns with the SNB's policy [2]. - The SNB forecasts average inflation of approximately 0.4% for 2025, and 0.8% for both 2026 and 2027, suggesting no need for aggressive monetary policy adjustments [2]. - The Swiss economy is projected to grow by 1%-1.5% in 2025 and around 1.5% in 2026, supported by rising real wages and a stable job market [3]. Group 4: External Factors and Risks - Global risk sentiment, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence, has increased demand for the CHF as a safe-haven asset [3][5]. - The potential for a slowdown in external demand due to rising global economic uncertainties poses a risk to Switzerland's export-driven economy, particularly in high-end manufacturing sectors [4][5]. - Analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for the CHF, expecting it to remain strong amid ongoing safe-haven demand and supportive policies, with potential fluctuations based on external economic conditions [5].