铁矿：钢厂补库兑现 港口库存压力持续增大

Spot Market - Mainstream iron ore spot prices: Rizhao Port PB powder +10 to 799 RMB/wet ton, Brazilian blend +10 to 824 RMB/wet ton, and lump ore +10 to 890 RMB/wet ton [1] Futures Market - As of January 29, the main iron ore futures contract increased by 1.78% (+14) to close at 798.5 RMB/ton [2] Demand - Daily average pig iron production is 2.2798 million tons, a decrease of 0.12 million tons month-on-month; blast furnace operating rate is 79.00%, an increase of 0.32%; blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate is 85.47%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points; steel mill profit margin is 39.39%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points [3] Supply - Global shipments this period slightly decreased but remain at historically high levels, with a total increase of 485,000 tons to 29.783 million tons; Brazil's total iron ore shipments reached 23.943 million tons, an increase of 1.476 million tons month-on-month; shipments from Brazil to China were 14.876 million tons, an increase of 978,000 tons [4] Inventory - As of January 29, inventory at 45 ports is 170.2226 million tons, an increase of 2.5573 million tons month-on-month; daily average port clearance volume slightly decreased, with high arrival volumes leading to continued inventory accumulation; steel mills' imported ore inventory increased by 5.7977 million tons to 99.6859 million tons [5] Market Outlook - The main iron ore futures contract showed strong fluctuations, with a general rise in commodity prices and improved market sentiment; however, supply remains high while demand shows signs of weakness, particularly in steel exports; inventory levels at ports continue to rise, which may exert downward pressure on iron ore prices, with expectations of prices around 800 RMB being a potential shorting point [6]