长江有色：宏观情绪承压供应端库存回升 30日镍价或小跌

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the nickel market is experiencing fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors, with a recent increase in London nickel prices driven by a weaker US dollar and supply concerns [2][3] - London nickel futures closed at $18,520 per ton, up $80 from the previous trading day, reflecting a 0.43% increase, while domestic Shanghai nickel futures showed a decline, closing at 143,780 yuan per ton, down 1.34% [1][2] - The LME nickel inventory reported an increase of 132 tons, totaling 286,470 tons, indicating a slight rise in supply [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is cautious, influenced by recent volatility in global markets due to shifts in Federal Reserve policy expectations, which have led to widespread asset price fluctuations [2] - The nickel market is characterized by a dual situation of "long-term tight expectations" and "short-term reality of looseness," with consensus on potential long-term reductions in Indonesian nickel production quotas providing price support [2][3] - Demand from downstream sectors, particularly stainless steel and new energy battery materials, has slowed significantly after a period of concentrated inventory buildup, leading to reduced purchasing activity [2][3] Group 3 - The industry is currently in a phase of observation and negotiation, with upstream producers attempting to maintain high prices while downstream acceptance of current price levels has decreased [3] - Major producers are performing steadily, benefiting from previous high prices and capacity releases, but are not aggressively expanding production to influence short-term supply-demand balance [3] - The current market sentiment is cooling, with both volume and price declining, as traders adjust quotes and downstream buyers limit purchases to essential needs [3]