Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Citigroup expects increased activity spending to re-emerge for Sands China (01928) over the next four years (2026 to 2029), while maintaining confidence that Sands China's EBITDA margin can reach a low 30% level, reiterating a "Buy" rating but lowering the target price from HKD 24.25 to HKD 23 [1] - Sands China reported Q4 earnings that were broadly in line with Citigroup's expectations, with net revenue increasing by 16% year-on-year to USD 2.058 billion (up 8% quarter-on-quarter), and property EBITDA rising by 6% year-on-year to USD 608 million (up 1% quarter-on-quarter), which was slightly below the market consensus of USD 628 million [1] - Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased by approximately 3.9 percentage points year-on-year to about 28.9% [1] Group 2 - The management of Sands China indicated during the analysis conference call that significant spending on activities, primarily due to the NBA China Games and the 15th National Games, contributed to a year-on-year EBITDA margin decline of 2.7 percentage points (29.5% in Q4 2025; 32.2% in Q4 2024) [2] - Considering the aforementioned activities and a less favorable revenue mix from VIP and mass market segments, Citigroup believes that the reported EBITDA margin indicates Sands China is still managing operational expenses effectively [2] - The management also mentioned a year-on-year decline in the win rate by approximately 140 basis points, with promotional efforts stabilizing and plans for further optimization in 2026 [2]
花旗：下调金沙中国(01928)目标价至23港元 上季物业EBITDA低市场预期