Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains its EBITDA forecasts for Sands China (01928) for 2026 and 2027, with the current stock price corresponding to 9x 2026e EV/EBITDA, and a target price of HKD 23.80, indicating a 26% upside potential from the current price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Sands China reported 4Q25 net revenue of USD 2.058 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8%, recovering to 92% of 4Q19 levels [2] - Adjusted property EBITDA for 4Q25 was USD 608 million, up 6% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter, but fell short of the consensus estimate of USD 632 million [2] Group 2: Market Share and Costs - The company achieved a higher gaming revenue market share of 24.5% in 4Q25, up from 23.7% in 3Q25, driven by membership programs and growth in customers from other Asian regions [3] - Despite the increased market share, EBITDA was impacted by higher operational costs, including expenses related to events like the NBA China Games and rising employee salaries due to increased gaming table capacity [3] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The high-end segment (VIP business and premium mass) is expected to continue leading industry growth, with the marketing rebate environment anticipated to stabilize in 2026, potentially positively impacting EBITDA margins [4] - The deployment of side-bet products is ongoing, but participation from Macau customers has not met expectations, which may limit structural growth in win rates; visitor numbers and customer plans during the Spring Festival are expected to remain strong [4] - Although property foot traffic has surpassed 2019 levels, the premium mass segment has recovered to 117% of 4Q19 levels, while the mass market segment has only recovered to 95%, indicating a decline in per capita spending in the mass segment [4]
中金：维持金沙中国(01928)跑赢行业评级 目标价23.80港元