马年纪念币钞“一约难求” 谁在推高身价？跟风炒纪念币钞有何风险？
Yang Guang Wang·2026-01-30 04:05

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of the 2026 Year of the Horse commemorative coins and notes by the People's Bank of China has sparked a nationwide exchange frenzy due to their auspicious symbolism and exquisite design, although there are complaints about the difficulty of obtaining them through official channels [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange and Demand - The exchange rate for the commemorative coins reached 87.30% and for the notes, it exceeded 90% in many areas as of January 26, indicating strong public interest [2]. - The demand is driven by the low face value of the coins and notes, which align with the cultural practices of gifting during the Spring Festival [2]. - The 2026 Year of the Horse commemorative coin is the last in the second round of zodiac coins issued from 2015 to 2026, making it a crucial piece for collectors [2]. Group 2: Secondary Market and Pricing - In the secondary market, certain special serial numbers of the commemorative notes can sell for significantly higher prices, with some fetching up to 15,000 yuan due to their rarity [3]. - The pricing of these coins and notes is closely linked to the scarcity of their serial numbers, creating a complex pricing system influenced by speculators and traders [3]. - The phenomenon of "黄牛" (scalpers) and organized trading has contributed to inflated prices, with students actively participating in this market [4][5]. Group 3: Risks and Speculation - Many participants, including students, are engaging in speculative trading, which poses risks, especially for those with lower risk tolerance [6]. - Historical data suggests that the prices of zodiac commemorative coins and notes tend to rise initially but then stabilize or decline, indicating that they are not reliable short-term investment tools [6]. - Experts recommend that the focus should return to the cultural significance of these coins and notes rather than treating them as high-return investments, advocating for better regulation of the market to curb excessive speculation [6].